Energy Musings - May 11, 2026
Hurricane season starts soon, with NOAA's forecast due in two weeks. Every forecast points to a less active season, aided by El Niño, but a rare super El Niño could make global weather challenging.
Super El Niño To Influence Upcoming Hurricane Season?
NOAA Satellite Picture
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website shows the picture above. It was there when they notified the media of a May 21 press conference to release the 2026 Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast. The picture shows the two hurricanes, Imelda and Humberto, side by side, as they moved off the U.S. East Coast on September 29, 2025. It is a reminder that we can experience unusual storm activity during any storm season. Hence, a forecast of a less active season does not guarantee that Americans will not, or cannot, be impacted or suffer serious damage and loss of life.
NOAA also announced changes to its upcoming storm charts showing storm paths and the various warnings issued surrounding the area. The changes are designed to help people better understand the risk of harm. We will get to that later.
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The upcoming season is expected to be affected by the formation of an El Niño weather phenomenon in the South Pacific Ocean, which retards hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean. AccuWeather issued the first 2026 seasonal forecast in late March. It called for 11-16 Named Storms (NS), 4-7 Hurricanes (H), 2-4 Major Hurricanes of Category 3 or above (MH), and 3-5 storms impacting the U.S. mainland. They characterized the upcoming season as “less active,” due to El Niño, which they believe will form during May.
Since that forecast was released, at least three other meteorological organizations have issued forecasts. They were all consistent with the theme AccuWeather highlighted. The Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project says this season will experience a “strong El Niño,” which will reduce NS to 13, with 6 H, and 2 MH. These estimates compare with the historical average over 1991-2020 of 14.4 NS, 7.2 H, and 3.2 MH. Importantly, the CSU forecast estimates that U.S. and Caribbean MH landfall will be below the long-term average, another benefit of a less active storm season.
Two other forecasts released during April by The Weather Channel and North Carolina State University are consistent with AccuWeather and CSU. Based on the NOAA April extended range statistical prediction scheme, influenced by El Niño, the government’s National Hurricane Center is expected to announce a forecast for 13 NS, 6 H, and 2 MH. It also expects the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and the Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity measures that reflect the number of days of storm activity to be 75% of their long-term averages.
How El Niño impacts the Atlantic Basin storm activity.
While storm forecasters anticipate an El Niño, meteorologists are beginning to discuss the possibility of a “super El Niño” weather event. El Niño is experienced about every 2-7 years. The heat it generates is offset when it transitions into La Niña, which is associated with the cooling of the South Pacific Ocean. This oscillation between warming and cooling ocean phenomena helps balance the global temperature.
In contrast to El Niño, a super El Niño is rarer. There have been 5 super El Niños since 1950, or about one every 15 years. A super El Niño is defined as water temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average for several months. They are less frequent and create different weather patterns. El Niño can cause wetter weather in the southern United States and drier conditions in parts of the northern United States. El Niño conditions, in addition to creating different weather patterns across the U.S., also depress hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. A super El Niño could suppress Atlantic hurricane activity but create more hurricanes in the Pacific.
NOAA reported in April that there was a 61% chance of an El Niño developing between May and July. More importantly, it sees at least a 50-50 chance of developing into a super El Niño, according to forecast models.
The lead hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather told Newsweek, “We’re currently forecasting a 15 to 20 percent chance of a super El Niño developing by the end of the hurricane season.” That was higher than the 15% chance he had assigned the phenomenon earlier. He went on to say that a super El Niño would be only the second since 2000. “The 1997 event is one of the strongest on record, and it would take a lot for this one to rival that,” he said.
Paul Roundy, a professor at the University of Albany’s Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, sees the potential for this El Niño to be “the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s.” That suggests El Niño is a natural weather event and not driven by climate change or global warming.
Pacific Ocean Hurricanes
The long-term average for storms in the Eastern Pacific is 16 NS, 9 H, and 4 MH. Annually, about 3-4 storms move from the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific. The Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30, two weeks longer than the Atlantic season. AccuWeather is predicting the Eastern Pacific will see 17-22 NS, 9-13 H, and 4-8 MH. It also anticipates 2-4 H and 2-3 MH in the Central Pacific. This makes the region more active than normal, and considerably more active than the Atlantic season.
A less active Atlantic hurricane season and fewer storms making landfall on the U.S. coastline are positive for the energy industry. Hopefully, there will not be a storm that damages our Gulf Coast and offshore oil and gas production, or our energy imports and exports. European and South American nations continue to look to the U.S. energy industry to supply the oil and gas they lost with the Hormuz closure.
A more active Pacific Ocean storm season could disrupt the global energy recovery from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Once the Strait is reopened and Persian Gulf nations can resume oil exports, there will be a rush to move output to Asian countries that have depended on the region for its oil and gas. Countries will be anxious to rebuild their oil and gas storage, while also restoring normal operations disrupted by the lack of Middle Eastern supplies.
California, as we have reported, depends on Persian Gulf oil for 30% of the state’s oil supply. Additionally, with California refineries shutting down, the state and western U.S. states depend on more foreign supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to satisfy demand. The Jones Act waiver has allowed California refiners to bring petroleum products directly from the Gulf Coast rather than sending them to the Bahamas for transshipment. This is how they were dealing with the Jones Act requirement that all cargoes traveling between two U.S. ports must be transported on Jones Act-compliant tankers.
The Pacific Ocean will see higher tanker activity once Middle Eastern oil can be shipped. Therefore, tankers delivering Middle Eastern oil supplies will be exposed to the increased Pacific Ocean storm activity. That could disrupt the orderly flow of supplies, delay ships forced to wait on passing storms, or require them to detour because of port damage from hurricanes.
We are not suggesting that the shipping industry cannot manage a more active storm season, but we believe people should be aware of the increased storm risk and the potential for energy supply disruptions.
NOAA Communications Upgrade
NOAA has announced changes to how it communicates about tropical storm paths and the risks they pose to residents in the region. Now, the operational cone will display inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, addressing risks that often extend far from the coastline and have caused significant damage in recent seasons. This change will hopefully keep people from becoming too complacent about storm tracks and how they may personally be affected.
Changes are coming to the NOAA storm track graphics.
The National Hurricane Center plans to test an experimental track cone using ellipses anchored at each forecast point to reflect the uncertainty in both the storm’s speed and direction. The experimental cone will capture 90% of the forecast track possibilities rather than the traditional 67%. Hopefully, the higher percentage of forecast tracks will provide more accurate indications of where storms may go, who may be impacted, and when.
USA Today reported that the Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center said the experimental cone would be “about 23% wider” than the current cone. The change is to communicate a “most likely track,” and address the tendency for the public to overinterpret the current cone. The graphic will be available on Hurricanes.gov during advisories. However, the agency cautioned that technical issues could affect timeliness during the experimental phase.
Continual improvements in storm forecasts will further help improve the track projection. According to media and weather outlets, the 2026 operational cone, based on recent forecast-error trends, would be about 4-8% smaller than the 2025 cone in the Atlantic and 3-8% smaller in the Pacific, reflecting the ongoing improvements in track forecasting. Improved forecast windows and more accurate displays of storm tracks may help people in the path of storms to better prepare, reducing damage and saving lives.
As we always warn, each storm season is different, and storm paths and intensity can change dramatically over short time spans. Being prepared and reacting faster is important. We are only a few weeks away from the start of the Atlantic storm season, so be safe.