Energy Musings - March 26, 2026
For those living close to the Gulf or East Coasts, they watch the hurricane forecasts to see how active the season may be. This year's first forecast suggests this season may be less active.
First Look At The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
AccuWeather is the first of the weather forecasters to issue an initial prediction for the upcoming hurricane season, which runs from Monday, June 1, through Monday, November 30. While AccuWeather is the first, we expect the others to be unveiling their initial predictions in early April. Everyone updates their forecasts during the season as weather conditions shift.
The AccuWeather prediction is for a less active storm year, though they warn that any storm could be serious, highly damaging, and life-threatening. Therefore, people should monitor the weather and tropical storm forecasts and prepare for the storm’s arrival or evacuate.
The forecast is for 11-16 named storms, with 4-7 becoming hurricanes. Potentially, 2-4 hurricanes could become major hurricanes, reaching Category 3 wind speeds of 111 miles per hour or greater. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes involve wind speeds of 130-156 miles per hour, and 157 miles per hour or more, respectively.
To put this year’s forecast into perspective, last year, AccuWeather predicted 13-18 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes, and 3-6 making landfall. They foresaw 2025 being an extension of the very active and devastating 2024 season.
A less active hurricane forecast is expected in 2026.
AccuWeather predicts that 3-5 named storms could directly impact the United States coast. Unsurprisingly, they see the two areas most at risk of storm landfall are the Outer Banks of the Carolinas and the Gulf Coast region from Louisiana to the tip of the Florida Peninsula. These two areas have been the primary landing points for tropical storms for centuries.
Where most hurricanes and tropical storms make landfall on the U.S. coast.
Last year, the Atlantic Basin experienced 13 named storms. Of that total, 5 were hurricanes, 7 were tropical storms, and 1 was a subtropical storm. These results were at the low end of AccuWeather’s 2025 forecast. As the map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows, only one storm made landfall on the U.S. coast. That was TS Chantal, which hit the Carolinas from July 4 to July 7.
Paths of 2025 hurricanes and tropical storms.
What we found most interesting was how many of the storms in 2025 started and ended in the Atlantic Ocean. For the U.S., it was a good year for tropical storms.
Odds are El Niño will impact the hurricane season.
The most significant factor impacting the hurricane season and the forecast is the developing El Niño weather phenomenon. While El Niño forms in the Pacific Ocean, it has major impacts on North America’s weather patterns, especially in the Atlantic Ocean, where increased wind shear disrupts storm formation. As the probability of El Niño increases during the season, the storm disruption should increase.
Three other conditions AccuWeather cites that are impacting its forecast are warm Atlantic waters, the potential for storms forming closer to the coast, which reduces preparation time, and the location of the Bermuda High, which could steer storms into high-risk areas along the Gulf Coast or the eastern U.S.
This is always a risk of storms forming close to land. The risk increases during the season when shallow coastal waters become unusually warm. The warmth can provide energy to intensify and accelerate the arrival of storms. This is a reason why the National Weather Service has been diligently working to improve its forecasts, especially for target landfalls. Extending the forecast period gives coastal residents more time to prepare.
The impact of extending the forecast period is shown in the AccuWeather chart, which shows the number of days until storms arrive along the U.S. coastline. Predicting storm paths is always difficult, but extending the forecast period with greater accuracy will save lives and potentially reduce damage.
Number of days for tropical storms to reach North America.
We will be interested in the NOAA and Colorado State University Climate Unit’s Atlantic Basin tropical storm forecasts. We expect the forecasts to reflect a less-active hurricane season. That will be a good outcome for Americans.