Energy Musings - March 17, 2025

A German think-tank has warned its nation's government about the national security risk of Chinese offshore wind turbines. They can gather military intelligence and shut down the turbines remotely.

New Offshore Wind National Defense Risk

We recently learned of an advisory from the German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies (GIDS) think-tank to the German defense ministry highlighting the security risks Chinese offshore wind turbines pose. POLITICO saw the report and reported its conclusions. The GIDS warning is directed to the German government and the businesses planning to build new offshore wind farms. Indirectly, it is a warning to the European Union.

The significance of the warning should be viewed through the lens of rising geopolitical tensions between Europe and China. The increase relates to rising economic competition and the Baltic Sea experiencing six incidents of suspected underwater sabotage of pipelines, communication cables, and power lines connecting various nations in Europe and Scandinavia. Economically, China is aggressively targeting European economies with low-cost products, especially ones used in renewable energy.

Furthermore, Friedrich Merz, the incoming German chancellor, announced an agreement with the Green party to inject hundreds of billions of Euros into the country’s military and aging infrastructure. Merz agreed to more investment in the energy transition to secure the Green party's support. The spending plan required a break with the historical limits on government spending. However, economists and the government see the sharp increase in spending as a stimulus for Germany’s lagging economy. The country has experienced two years of recession and is projected to barely grow in 2025. Offshore wind is targeted for expansion – adding 30 gigawatts of power by 2030 – so the GIDS security warning should be a red flag.

The advisory says China could purposely delay offshore wind projects, harvest sensitive data, and remotely shut down turbines. China could disrupt the delivery of the necessary turbines for new projects by “at least four to five years” between the planning approval and commissioning stages. With access to the computer programs controlling active turbines, the Chinese could collect data from the radars built into the farms. This would hand China, and potentially an alliance of China and Russia, “considerable blackmail potential in the future.” How would Europe fight a unified China/Russia after losing a significant source of its power and having its military moves tracked by its adversaries in real time?

GIDS says this disruption could lead to chaos for Germany. “A destabilization of both the political system, the business model of German industry, and social cohesion cannot, therefore, be ruled out due to a lack of or insufficient planning security in the energy sector,” said the report. Those are important points. It isn’t just about the economic or security risks; the ability of an adversary to control and manipulate a nation’s energy system is just as socially divisive as the policies to control the public during COVID-19 proved to be.

GIDS’s warnings should be taken seriously. They come just as the Chinese are gaining a majority share of the global wind turbine market. According to media reports, China has installed over half the 30,000 operating wind turbines. Moreover, it has the cheapest and largest offshore wind turbines. It has also developed a fleet of wind turbine installation vessels enabling it to compete more effectively for business.

China is not selling wind turbines to U.S. East Coast offshore projects. There may not be a market for them in the future based on how Trump’s anti-offshore wind policy unfolds. Therefore, the U.S. may have less to worry about regarding Chinese wind turbine issues. However, China's ability to control offshore wind turbines in Europe and collect radar data on ship and plane movements in the region must be considered from a national security point of view.

We discovered a 2022 paper on the GIDS website, “From old mistakes to new opportunities,” that discussed security experts’ recommendations for achieving the greatest possible energy sovereignty through renewable energies.

Professor Dr. Stefan Bayer of GIDS, Dr. Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), and Dr. Guntram Wolff of the German Society for Foreign Relations (DGAP) collaborated on the paper. The authors warned that renewable energies' broadest possible diversification is essential to overcome China’s dominance in critical minerals and green energy technologies. That doesn’t address the superiority of Chinese manufacturers in clean energy technology, such as offshore wind turbines.

Each of the three authors is quoted in the paper’s press release, making key points about how renewable energy could make Germany safer. “China is the energy-political superpower not only of the old but also the new world,” said Dr. Puglierin. The issue is that China’s dominance of the new world has become a problem for Germany’s industry, which means its population, too.

Dr. Wolff commented, “Even if an energy policy based on energy sovereignty is initially becoming more expensive, it means greater security of supply in the medium term and lower costs, even less costs due to lower risks.” The authors believe that energy sovereignty can be achieved strategically when economic aspects are combined with security policy. The problem with this conclusion is that we have yet to see renewable energy costs decline when full system costs are considered.

The ultimate point of the paper was that the military needs to play a more decisive role in the energy transition. "Energy-political vulnerability also means military vulnerability. The Bundeswehr [German defense force] is very dependent on the civilian energy infrastructure,” says Dr. Bayer. What happens when the military rates the reliability of its energy supply higher than its cost or cleanliness? Defense forces have one mission – to protect a nation from aggressors. Should the military have its hands tied by politicians emphasizing the cleanliness or cost of renewable energy over its reliability? If so, who assumes the risk of military failure?