Energy Musings - December 17, 2025
The world, and especially the U.S., is struggling to increase mariner populations, given the growth in world trade. The human issue many be a key inhibitor to the revitalization of U.S shipping.
Maritime’s Revitalization Human Challenge
With Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House in January, the national security risks posed by the atrophied maritime industry were identified and began to be addressed. Unfortunately, declaring the issue a priority and correcting it is not easy, nor will it be quick. It will require the expansion of physical assets (shipyards) and a substantial increase in manpower. We need more ships, and that means more skilled shipyard workers and additional mariners to operate the growing fleet. The human issue required in the revitalization of the maritime industry may prove to be the greatest challenge.
We have addressed the shipyard capacity issue numerous times in Energy Musings. We are pleased that foreign shipbuilding firms are willing to invest in U.S. shipyards. Furthermore, they are upgrading the yards to improve their efficiency. Importantly, these new shipyard owners are willing to invest in training workers, increase wages, and improve working conditions, making these occupations worthy of young people’s career aspirations.
Addressing the mariner population is more challenging. The glamour of shipping has less appeal to many of today’s youths. We remember when the slogan “Join the Navy and see the world” helped recruit sailors.
The Wall Street Journal has authored two articles this year about the challenges of increasing our mariner population. One article was published in April, shortly after President Trump issued an executive order for his administration to develop plans to revitalize our commercial shipping fleet. The other was published in late November. Neither was optimistic about overcoming the mariner challenge, even with the prospect that sailors can earn six-figure salaries, and work only half a year.
In the April article, Rodolphe Saadé, the billionaire CEO of France’s CMA CGM, told the WSJ that he had told President Trump that his company’s U.S. arm would add 20 containerships to the 10 vessels already conducting U.S.-flag operations, but he needs an additional 1,000 mariners to operate them, given crew rotation schedules. Since the U.S. flag industry is struggling to crew the existing fleet, he was not optimistic he could find the workers needed, putting the fleet expansion at risk of never being done.
The industry faces a severe shortage of mariners willing to go to sea. We are unsure of the size of the mariner population. The WSJ chart in the November article showed data from the Maritime Administration’s tracking of the estimated number of U.S. mariners from 1950 to 2000, at which point it ceased publishing estimates. The current guestimate is that we have 10,000 mariners. What is unknown is how many are willing to sail and possess current ratings for the positions they would fill. They may still have some ratings, but unless they have been sailing recently, many of them have likely expired.
The U.S. mariner population has declined over the years.
In contrast to our estimated 10,000 mariners, China reportedly has 2 million, according to the Maritime Administration. Of course, China operates a global shipping fleet substantially larger than the U.S.-flag fleet.
The Chinese mariner population may be overstated.
The biggest problem with the data cited by the WSJ is that it is unclear whether the two mariner populations are comparable. On March 25, 2025, an article by Marine Insight quoted mariner population figures from a 2023 survey by the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), an organization of shipowners representing 60% of the world’s merchant shipping tonnage and with members in more than 130 countries, including managers, brokers, and agents.
According to BIMCO’s data, the top ten countries of origin of seafarers are: The Philippines, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Ukraine, Greece, Turkey, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The Philippines seafarer population is estimated at 550,000 total, 350,000 with registrations, and 200,000 officers. BIMCO estimated the Chinese maritime population at 250,000, or slightly over 10% of the two million workers in the WSJ chart.
After speaking with the Maritime Administration officials who compile the agency’s data, we learned that there are many sources of maritime data, but not all use the same definitions. China has had an extensive coastal shipping fleet for decades, but it is a more recent participant in the ocean-going segment of the global shipping industry. Therefore, the two-million-mariner estimate may reflect many seafarers who are not licensed to operate ocean-going ships. The Maritime Administration was careful in past data collections to exclude U.S. sailors working the inland and coastal waters on Jones Act-compliant vessels, but who do not have the appropriate ratings for operating ocean-going ships. Therefore, we have a mariner population larger than the 10,000 estimate, but they are not qualified for blue-water vessels.
The BIMCO surveys, done periodically, are among its shipowner members and others in various countries. These are the people operating the global ocean-going fleet, suggesting they likely have a better sense of the total seafarer workforce.
When BIMCO conducted its last detailed mariner survey in 2021, it estimated the global seafarer workforce at 1.9 million. It listed the Chinese workforce at about 140,000, while the U.S. mariner population was about 59,000. So, how many mariners are there to operate the global fleet? It may be anyone’s guess, given the various data sources. The one truth is that the U.S. mariner population has been shrinking. If we consider only seafarers with active ratings and willing to go to sea, the total may be closer to the 10,000-worker estimate.
A significant problem in growing our mariner population is that the seven U.S. maritime academies produce only about 800 graduates a year. Even if everyone worked for Saadé’s CMA CGM U.S. affiliate, planning to add 20 new container ships, the company would still be 20% below the number of mariners needed to operate them. Furthermore, a portion of academy graduating classes head directly to shore-based jobs, having decided they do not want to face the challenges of working offshore.
Mariners spend months away from friends and family, doing hard physical work over long hours, sometimes in rough seas. They deal with boredom and loneliness, and until recently, many were without internet access or communication. These conditions often outweigh the healthy six-figure incomes they can earn. Particularly difficult is that the increased efficiency in ship operations means vessels are frequently in port for a few days or even only a few hours, leaving mariners to spend almost all their time at sea.
Graham Benton, dean of strategic and academic planning at California State University Maritime Academy, told the Wall Street Journal that graduates of his academy spend about five-and-a-half years at sea before switching to land-based careers. “It’s a lonely profession,” he said.
Many of the leading providers of mariners are low-income nations. Many of those who choose to go to sea do so because they earn healthy salaries while being provided with food and accommodations for free. These mariners are a significant source of remittances to their families, which boost their nations’ GDPs. These seafarers are willing to trade the bad things about sailing for the higher incomes they can earn, which benefits their families.
Increased automation of ships may help alleviate some of the need for mariners, but there will always be the safety issue of operating a vessel without its automation. The magnitude of the maritime industry’s human challenge is highlighted by a 2023 study that examined the role seafarers play in the global economy to 2050. Based on estimates of continued growth in international trade, the study suggested that the industry must add roughly 1,000 ships and 30,000 mariners a year to the existing fleet. That means 32,500 new vessels and 875,000 additional mariners. These growth estimates are in addition to the mariners currently operating the existing fleet, estimated at 109,000 ships in 2024.
Upgrading shipyards and building new vessels will be an easier task than expanding the mariner population. Shipowners must rethink how they recruit sailors and their working conditions. Until we can attract a significant number of young people interested in and willing to embrace sailing as a career, we may have a serious problem in revitalizing our maritime industry.